WHY NEWT WON’T WITHER


The media is “chompin’ at the bit” for evidence that Newt Gingrich’s surge is just another flash-in-the-pan. You can almost feel them waiting to pounce on the impending Newt implosion. It’s not going to happen.

Unlike his front runner predecessors, Newt is not a cotton candy candidate (real sweet but mostly air). Newt’s popularity is based on substance. Newt won’t trip because he can’t. One need only study the candidates briefly to see the huge difference between Newt and the other candidates. Newt is running as himself, the others are all running as who they think they “ought” to be. It is easy to “step in it” or get tripped up when you’re just pretending to be something you are not, but you can’t NOT be yourself for any period of time without stumbling. When you’re running as yourself, the only way to trip is to try to be what you’re not – I don’t see Newt going down that road.

Newt is running as himself and the country likes what they see. All Newt needs to do to continue to consolidate his dominance is to keep being Newt (how hard is that?). Some say that Newt being Newt is exactly what will trip him up, but this is wrong headed. Newt is no longer the fire-breathing, take-no-prisoners, damn-the-torpedos-full-speed-ahead, guy he was (and needed to be) when he rose to be Speaker of the House. No one at 68 years old is the same person they were at 38. There can be no doubt that Newt’s type A personality remains. However, age, faith, and grandchildren have tempered his judgment, demeanor and outlook. He is now truly a vintaged wine.

In contrast, Michelle Bachman entered the primary race as an energetic fresh face, tea party supporter, with a reasonable ability to articulate and connect with people. She had the additional novelty of being a woman running for President. She touted a conservative background and a firebrand, go-it-alone if necessary, style that is desperately craved by a conservative base which has had its fill of milk toast candidates (I give you John McCain and Mitt Romney). She announced her candidacy and shortly thereafter won the Iowa straw poll, giving her a boost and sending Tim Pawlenty packing.

Herman Cain had the appeal of being a black conservative. Whether conservatives want to admit it or not, being black was helpful to Herman Cain, because embracing a like-thinking black man had the additional advantage of dispelling the racism myth. So along comes Herman Cain, a charming, conservative man with reasonably good business credentials (who happens to be black) and conservatives jump on the Cain Train.

Then came Perry. The buzz surrounding Perry’s entry to the campaign was deafening, at least in part because Cain and Bachmann seemed to lack the strong background credentials needed for a Presidential candidate. In Perry we had a Governor of a large, conservative state which had done very well while the rest of the nation suffered under the yoke of Obama. He gave few interviews prior to his entry and his retail politics were good. He’s a good looking, upstanding, ex-military guy who, it seemed, could make a good strong speech touting conservative values. Conservatives looking for a good alternative to Romney with the credentials to beat Obama, jumped ship from Bachmann and Cain to Perry based on his obviously stronger credentials.

Playing in the background the whole time was Newt. A seemingly frumpy old man with a reputation for making enemies, questionable allegiances, and marrying everything that moved. Yes, conservatives knew he was conservative (largely) and they knew he had been a leader in the glory days, but who wants to fool with the old toys (even if you liked them) when there are shiny new ones to play with? So off they went to play with Bachmann, Cain and Perry. Then, to everyone’s chagrin, the new toys broke. Bachmann turned vicious and hurt herself while she was attempting to hurt Perry. Perry squandered his outstanding Texas credentials by failing to personally live up to expectations by being unprepared to debate and by being unable to clearly and forthrightly articulate his positions (particularly on immigration). Cain lived for awhile on his charm and his race and then on 9-9-9. Once under the spotlight however, it became apparent that Cain couldn’t handle the heat. The initial sexual allegations didn’t hurt him much, but his handling of the matter made his Presidential qualifications suspect. Then came the Libya thing. There is nothing wrong with taking time to gather one’s thoughts, but you can’t come across like you’ve been cramming for an exam and just can’t remember the answer because you’ve got so much “twirling around in my head.” Conservatives began to see that Cain was just not ready for prime time.

Unlike the others, Newt’s campaign did not begin with a pop – it was more like a fizzle. He announced his candidacy on the internet (no pomp and circumstance), He was unprepared for the silly questions – “why do you have a large credit line at Tiffany’s?” His staff very publicly deserted him early in the campaign, ostensibly because they believed Newt was not committed to the campaign. Newt’s plan however, was based on the theory (now proved) that over time substance would prevail over flash. He was right. Newt chugged along and when the novelty of the new candidates wore off, the electorate began to remember why they liked their old reliable toys to begin with. They were rugged, they were interesting and they rarely let you down.

So Newt got a second look, and the closer conservatives looked the more they liked what they were seeing. A man who is unafraid of the media and doesn’t need notes to articulately espouse and defend his positions; a man who refuses to bash his primary opponents (even when they lie about him); a man who actually answers questions forthrightly and unapologetically; a man whose bearing is more that of statesman than of a politician; a man who operates with encyclopedic historical knowledge and perspective. Newt is the real deal.

There is a saying in the sales world, “you sell the sizzle, not the steak.” This is what got us Barak Obama and it is what propelled the other Republican candidates into their short-lived front runner status. This is what keeps Mitt Romney is the game. While conservative voters may be temporarily distracted sizzle, they BUY the steak. Newt is 100% aged American beef. Conservative voters know it doesn’t get any better. Newt will win both the Republican nomination and the White House.