Friday, December 2, 2011

NEWT v. not-NEWT



The stars aligned last night and the morning is brighter for it. Newt Gingrich is the GOP frontrunner. No more the not-Romney candidate, last night, by all accounts the media (and Newt himself) proclaimed Newt the man to beat.

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To most Americans, the world has been out of kilter since Obama was elected. The reason is simple; we are a center right country being governed by a far left zealot. For the two years that Obama and his far left Congress were in charge of everything (including the toilet paper), Americans felt like they had been walking in two left shoes. It just didn’t feel right and America made that very clear in the 2010 election.

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In much the same way, the Republican Party has also been out of kilter. The party is center-right to right on the political spectrum, yet the presumptive nominee can be most credibly described as being somewhere between center-left and center-right on the same scale (the very concept of a “conservative former governor of Massachusetts” is oxymoronic on its face) . This is why the establishment anointed, presumptive nominee (Romney) has only been able to capture 20-25% of the party vote – he does not stand politically with the majority of the Party, yet somehow the party faithful were told he will be the nominee. The great news is that Republicans aren’t buying it. The pundits and beltway types are just astounded (and peeved) that the grassroots of the Republican party have not bowed to the superior intellect and political savvy of the Republican elite (you know, the wisdom that brought us John McCain, Bob Dole, and Both Bushes and warned us against Reagan). With Gingrich as the frontrunner, the party is now in balance. Newt is somewhere between center right and right on the political spectrum. Although some like to claim that Newt is not conservative, his 90% ACU rating over the course of a 50 year career in public and private life plainly belies any such assertion. Left to right, the Party hopefuls now line up as follows: Huntsman; Romney; Newt; Perry; Bachmann/Santorum (interchangeably). To fit Ron Paul on this line, you would have to bend the line into a circle and place Paul in the gap between the far left and the far right (the loon zone). With Gingrich as the frontrunner, the party is in balance with Newt occupying the same political position as the majority of the party (somewhere between center-right and Right). Even better news is that this position, center-right, is also occupied by the vast majority of the country.

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Who will be the not-Newt candidate? In terms of the base, the not-Newt candidate should come from Newt’s right (not his left). Tea party and hard line conservatives outnumber left-center to right-center Republicans by a wide margin. The real and logical battleground in the Republican Party should be between center right and right, not between center-left and center-right (in which a center-left victory leaves three quarters of the party dissatisfied and depressed). So, very interestingly, the logical not-Newt candidate is not Romney but rather Perry or Bachmann/Santorum. Newt now faces a daunting task, he must overcome well-funded political opponents on both his left and his right. Neither Perry nor Romney could credibly debate Newt one-on-one. However, debates are only a single aspect of the political process. Good funding means professional organization and a high media profile. The team with the best talent doesn’t win the game if it can’t execute. Newt supporters (and Newt himself) are justified in feeling a sense of accomplishment at Newt’s rise. But everyone should remember that it doesn’t mean much to be in first place at the beginning of the season.

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